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Each run draws new ratings around the real ones. Higher variance means bigger swings.
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Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: Nevada 64%, Hawai`i 36% at Nevada.
Nevada's win probability against Hawai`i has swung between 52% and 66% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 52% now.
Nevada's win probability against Hawai`i has swung between 58% and 71% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 58% now.
Nevada's win probability against Hawai`i is trending down — from 70% to 64% over the last 6 weeks.